The Rhodium Group’s latest forecast, published in September 2025, predicts that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will fall by 26–35% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. This is a stark downgrade from last year’s projection under the Biden administration, which estimated a 38–56% reduction by the same year. The slower pace is attributed to policy changes in the first seven months of President Donald Trump’s second term, including rollbacks of key climate regulations and a push to favor fossil fuels.
Historically, U.S. emissions have declined by an average of 1.1% annually since 2005, according to Rhodium. In the most pessimistic scenario, this could drop to just 0.4% per year through 2040, effectively halving the decarbonization rate achieved over the past two decades. Even in the best-case scenario, where renewable energy deployment accelerates and fossil fuel prices rise, emissions are expected to fall by only 43% by 2040—well short of the Biden-era target of 50–52% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement.
Policy Shifts Driving the Slowdown
The Trump administration’s energy policies, including the appointment of former oil and gas executive Chris Wright as Energy Secretary, signal a clear pivot toward fossil fuel expansion. Wright has publicly criticized net-zero emissions goals as a “colossal train wreck,” advocating for policies that prioritize oil and gas production. These include efforts to rescind unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which allocated $369 billion for clean energy, and weakening regulations on power plant emissions, methane leaks, and vehicle fuel efficiency.
Despite these rollbacks, renewable energy remains a bright spot. Rhodium notes that wind, solar, and energy storage projects account for 95% of new electricity generation capacity queued for U.S. grids, driven by cost competitiveness and rising demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles (EVs). However, the administration’s push for fossil fuels to meet this demand could offset gains, with emissions rising 1.4% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, according to Climate Trace.
Economic and Global Implications
The U.S., as the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a pivotal role in global climate efforts. The projected slowdown jeopardizes the nation’s ability to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, potentially undermining international efforts to limit warming to 2°C. Rhodium’s Ben King emphasized the global impact, noting that the policy shift is “a fairly big step in the wrong direction,” with effects becoming evident in emissions data within a couple of years.
Economically, the U.S. has maintained growth while reducing emissions—down 17% from 2005 to 2022, per the EPA. However, the Trump administration’s focus on deregulation, including plans to exit the Paris Agreement again, risks stalling clean energy investments. States like New York and Vermont are countering with local initiatives, such as Climate Superfund laws, but these may face legal challenges under a federal push for fossil fuel dominance.
Challenges for Renewable Energy
Despite policy headwinds, renewables are not disappearing. Falling costs for solar panels, batteries, and EVs ensure their competitiveness, even without federal subsidies. However, increased electricity demand from data centers (22% of new demand by 2035) and EVs (nearly half) complicates the transition. Without strong federal support, the pace of renewable deployment may not keep up with this demand, leading to reliance on fossil fuels and slower emissions cuts.
The Rhodium report also highlights the role of economic factors like oil and gas prices. Higher fossil fuel costs could accelerate renewable adoption, but political barriers, such as expedited approvals for nuclear reactors and relaxed environmental reviews, may tilt the scales toward dirtier energy sources.
Looking Ahead
The Trump administration’s policies mark a critical juncture for U.S. climate progress. While renewables remain resilient, the slower decarbonization pace threatens long-term climate goals. States, private companies, and global pressures will play a crucial role in sustaining momentum, but the absence of federal leadership could hinder the U.S.’s ability to drive meaningful change. As the world grapples with rising temperatures and extreme weather, the stakes for reversing this trend have never been higher.
