Renewable energy generation, including wind and solar, increased by 22% during the first 9 months of the year, building on the previous record-breaking installations. This growth has contributed to filling the void left by a decrease in coal generation, which fell by 8% during the same period. However, the impact of this renewable energy boom on emissions has been reduced by the growth of natural gas generation (up 7%) and a decline in nuclear power production. According to the EPA, power sector emissions have decreased by 1% in the first half of the year.
There is a concern about whether the US can sustain this growth in renewable energy. The recently passed climate and health bill aim to provide nearly $370 billion for low-emission projects over the next decade. However, renewable energy developers face challenges such as the economic downturn, supply chain issues, and transmission limitations.
A recent report by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory highlighted the issue of transmission capacity, pointing out that there are 674 GW of utility-scale solar waiting to be connected to the grid. Solar installations produced 104 TWh of electricity during the first 9 months of the year, a 30% increase from the same period in the previous year. Meanwhile, wind generation reached 325 TWh, a 19% increase from the same period in 2021 and a 53% increase since 2019. Renewable energy now accounts for approximately 14% of US power generation.
Although the US installed a record amount of renewable capacity in 2021 (17 GW of wind and 15.5 GW of solar), the pace of installation has slowed down in 2022 due to supply chain limitations. The US is expected to install 13.6 GW of solar and 6 GW of wind in the second half of the year, but some power industry analysts are skeptical about these projections due to inflation, policy decisions, and supply chain issues.
The long-term outlook for renewable energy remains challenging as grid operators struggle to keep up with the increasing demand for renewable energy connections. This shift represents a significant change from the past when grid operators only had to evaluate a few large fossil fuel interconnection requests. Power demand in the US has increased by 4% during the first 9 months of the year, with natural gas generation growing the most (from 1,098 TWh to 1,186 TWh).
Coal generation has declined (from 720 TWh to 660 TWh), while nuclear power production has also decreased (from 590 TWh to 585 TWh). This has resulted in slightly lower greenhouse gas emissions. Power plant carbon dioxide emissions during the first half of the year were 794 million tons, compared to 801 million tons in the first half of 2021.
